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THE NIGERIAN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS AND ASIWAJU BOLA AHMED TINUBU
By Seyi Awodugba

Published July 3rd, 2015


The National Assembly elections have been held and winners have emerged. However, more paramount than this obvious fact is that it signals a defeat for Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Itís known that he had heavily supported Ahmed Lawan and Femi Gbajabiamila, for the posts of Senate President and House Speaker, respectively, under the veneer of they being the candidates of the APC and both legislators lost. Of all the national leaders of the APC, only Tinubu was most visible in the run up to the elections and therefore lost the most, in terms of national relevance.

With every defeat he suffers, he becomes less divine and more human. Itís only a matter of time, before; the reverberations are felt in his power base of the South West (excluding Ekiti and Ondo states) in general and Lagos in particular. It is no secret that the NWC of the APC, is heavily dominated by Tinubuís loyalists, but for how long will they remain so, if their patronís influence gets slowly diminished and whittled down? With time, if the repercussions of this defeat is not carefully managed, it will haunt Tinubu.

Tinubu should also realize that the reason why he still has the latitude he does, is because Buhari for now is still apolitical. In Nigeria, power flows from the top; and that is the perch occupied by President Buhari. If and when Buhari, decides to takes control of the APC, Tinubu and his cohorts will find they have no firm ground on which to stand.

Tinubu as a Yoruba man should not and never underestimate the political skill of the Fulaniís. The Yorubaís have been dealing with the Fulaniís long before the imposition of British colonial rule. The book, History of the Yorubas by Samuel Johnson published in 1893, describes the death of the Are Ona Kakanfo [generalissimo] of the army of the Oyo empire, Afonja of Ilorin, at the hands of his erstwhile Fulani allies at pages 198-199:-


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ĎAt last, the Kakanfo was resolved to give effect to his threats and to disband the Jamas, but he miscalculated his own strength. By the death of his brother Agbonrin, and his head slave Lasipa he had lost his mainstay for these were men of power. He had offended all the powerful chiefs in the kingdom including his former friend and ally Solagberu of Oke Suna, and his priest Alimi by his high-handedness, lofty airs and haughty spirit. Fearing lest these Jamas should attack him suddenly if he were to delay their destruction, he sent a private message to the Onikoyi and other powerful chiefs in the country inviting them to make their appearance in Ilorin suddenly, and to assist him in annihilating these Jamas. But the secret was divulged to the Jamas, and they, losing no time, being headed by Alimi the priest, rose up against him before he could obtain help from abroad. Solagberu being a Yoruba, professed neutrality. The Kakanfo was closely besieged in his quarters, but he fought with his characteristic bravery. When he found himself overwhelmed by numbers, he dispatched Bugare his head slave to solicit the aid of Solagberu; but Solagberu treacherously detained him, saying, "Your Master has hitherto looked down upon us as his menials, and why does he now require our aid?" The great Kakanfo was disappointed on all sides. As neither Bugare nor Solagberu made an appearance, he could not hold out till the Onikoyi's arrival; he was compelled to fight within the walls of his house; but when the house was set on fire, he rushed out again into the streets surrounded by his faithful few. The insurgents surrounded them, charged again and again, but could not break their ranks. Afonja himself in the midst of them was fighting most desperately, surrounded by the corpses of some of his faithful attendants. Seeing the day was lost, some of his followers became disheartened and deserted him, but the rest chose to die with him. He fell indeed like a hero. So covered was he with darts that his body was supported in an erect position upon the shafts of spears and arrows showered upon him. So much dread had his personality inspired that these treacherous Jamas whom he had so often led to victory could not believe he was really dead; they continued to shower darts upon him long after he had ceased fighting. They were afraid to approach his body as if he would suddenly spring up and shake himself for the conflict afresh ; not till one of them, bolder than the rest cautiously went near and placed an arrow in his hand and they saw he could no longer grasp it, that they believed he was really dead! His corpse was taken up and burnt to ashes.í     

Now would be a good time for Tinubu to be wise on how he does his politicking at the national level. Abuja is not Ikeja or indeed the South West. Being more covert rather than overt is the way to do it.  

Seyi Awodugba, a Legal Practitioner writes from Lagos, Nigeria


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